MFF Economic Outlook: 5/6/20

Written by: Elizabeth Salas Evans, President & CCO at Cayena Capital Management; MFF Visiting Scholar

May 6, 2020

The United States (U.S.) is now at over seventy thousand deaths, with our friends across the pond in the United Kingdom (U.K.) now surpassing Italy’s death toll of over twenty-nine thousand lost lives due to COVID-19, second to the U.S. worldwide. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed an increase of one tenth of a percent this morning, with applications to purchase a home increasing five-point eight percent, and refinance applications down one-point seven percent. From March to April, the private sector eliminated over twenty million jobs, according to ADP’s National Employment Report, making this the largest job cut in the private sector in history. Stock and bond markets around the globe continue to be volatile, with U.S. equity markets showing further bifurcation between economic data and performance. This optimism reflects Wall Street’s support for recent monetary policy, as they wait for the Federal Reserve to execute orders to buy up corporate bonds. Analysts are currently forecasting tomorrow’s initial jobless claims to reflect an additional three million Americans out of work. With many states around the U.S. reopening businesses, there is hope that initial jobless claims will begin to slow as businesses progress to phase two of the Trump Administration’s three step plan.

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